How to tell a real opportunity from a plausible one

Four questions. If an idea cannot answer them, it is a description of a business rather than one.

Is there a dated event behind it?

A real opportunity has something that happened attached to it: a date, a source, a link you can open. "Businesses need help with social media" is a category, and categories have been true for a decade, which means everyone has already had a go.

"This firm posted this role on the 3rd of June and it is still open" is an event. You can check it. It might stop being true next week, which is exactly what makes it worth acting on now.

Can you name who pays, specifically?

Not "small businesses". Not "e-commerce brands". A name, or at minimum a list you could build in an afternoon. If nobody can be named, nothing can be sent, and an opportunity you cannot send anything about is a daydream.

Can you take a step this week without permission or capital?

If the first step is a course, a licence, a certification, an audience, or a thousand euros, it is not a first step, it is a barrier with a first step behind it. The good ones start with sending something.

Is the first money small, and soon?

Anything promising a large figure quickly is either lying or describing an outcome that took someone else three years. A believable few hundred within a month is worth more than a hypothetical five figures, for the unglamorous reason that the first one actually happens.

Why this matters more than it used to

Anyone can now generate a hundred plausible business ideas in a minute. Plausibility has become free and therefore worthless. What has not become free is knowing that a specific thing happened to a specific organisation on a specific date, and that it is still true this morning.

When you are handed an opportunity by anyone, including us, ask for the receipt. If there isn't one, treat it as an opinion.